The relationship between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China is perhaps the most important bilateral relationship
in the first half of the 21st century, as many diplomats and scholars have pointed out.
However, that relationship also has the potential of becoming the most dangerous one, with a real possibility
of a miscalculation by either side starting s a conventional armed conflict that devolves into a total nuclear war.
As the report below titled Xi's Gambit would show below, the chance of that apocalyptic scenario would be
4.3% should a war breaks out in 2027.
SAPIUS is working to lower the likelihood of that horrific outcome by providing unbiased analyses and forecasts. Our members, from diverse backgrounds,
are also working together to find common-sense solutions.
Recent Reports and Analyses
Xi's Gambit is a series of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations (MCMC) that study Xi Jinping's likely decisions in a war
between the US and China over Taiwan in the year 2027. The methodology, assumptions and source code for the baseline model are outlined in
this PDF document.
For a series of tutorial videos on how to construct your own MCMC model capable of analyzing geopolitical risks, you can watch
these YouTube videos.
For the most up-to-date model that is updated daily. Please log in.
